Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent rally has finally broken through to reach widely anticipated new all-time highs. With September being left behind and “Uptober” delivering on high hopes, many analysts are increasingly confident that the year will play out in the same way as 2017.
In fact, a recent tweet from crypto analyst TechDev shows just how closely the price chart for 2021 is tracking 2017, and it’s startlingly close.
But can a continuing upward trajectory really be that simple?
Following the indicators
Several pieces of data point to similarities in the patterns between the two cycles. Firstly, the relative strength index, which traders use to identify overbought and oversold markets, is tracing the same path as 2017. In 2013 and 2017, each cycle displayed two peaks, so if events follow course, then we’re still due a second rally.
TechDev’s ambitious prediction is that a $200,000 BTC price is “programmed in.” Korean trader Mignolet is also bullish, stating in early October that the decrease of volume moving from spot to derivatives markets is a positive market signal. Meanwhile, even back in September, some were sure about BTC reaching the $100,000 mark even before the recent all-time highs.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode recently published a review of long-term hodling patterns, which provides further credence to the argument for another rally to come. The results demonstrate that coins held longer than a statistically significant period of 155 days only begin to enter the markets once prices break the previous all-time high. On-chain patterns also currently show a trend toward accumulation.